For the first time in almost two decades, the Saskatchewan NDP has a slight chance of forming a government in the upcoming fall provincial election.The poll aggregator 338Canada gives the Sask NDP a 2% chance to reach the 31 seats required to form a majority government.New NDP leader Carla Beck kicked off her election campaign this week by guaranteeing she will not raise taxes if her party forms government. “People are struggling, even those who haven’t struggled in the past. We’ve got to lower costs and that’s exactly what we’ll do,” Beck said. “We want to give folks a guarantee that unlike Scott Moe and the Sask. Party, we won’t raise your taxes — in fact, we’ll lower them.”The NDP’s path to the Premier’s Office is helped by the two conservative parties pulling support away from Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party.The Buffalo Party is polling at 2% and the new upstart conservative Sask United Party is at 4%. Those polling numbers do not look concerning, except that most of their support is in rural areas, which are the Sask Party's strongholds.The NDP needs to turn at least 5-6 rural ridings they do not already hold and keep the rural ridings they already have.A source inside the NDP campaign not authorized to comment for the party told the Western Standard that they are looking at seats where Sask United and the Buffalo Party are likely to pull in 10% or more. The NDP knows they cannot pull 40% or higher in most rural ridings to win. However, two other parties are taking votes away from the Sask Party. They could win some rural seats by getting 30% to 35% of the vote.So, where are some rural ridings where the NDP could pull 30% or more?The Estevan riding is possible. The Buffalo Party leader Phil Zajac ran in the Estevan riding in the 2020 election, taking 24% of the vote. The Sask Party’s Lori Carr won with 62%, but that was a drop of almost 16% from the previous election. Adding in Sask United taking away votes from the Sask Party could open a path for the NDP to take the seat. Sask United is expected to announce their candidate next week.Another riding is Saskatchewan Rivers, the only seat Sask United has in the legislature. Sask United leader Nadine Wilson MLA currently holds the seat and the Sask Party wants that seat back. Wilson won the seat as a Sask Party candidate in 2020 and has held it since 2007. However, the NDP won 26% of the vote in 2020. Wilson is popular in her riding, and there is expected to be a very close race between the Sask Party and Sask United. But the Buffalo Party’s Fred Lackie pulled in 4% of the vote in 2020. The three parties on the right splitting up the vote leaves the door open for the NDP candidate Doug Racine to win the seat. This seat is possibly the best chance for the NDP to take a rural seat they do not already hold.Another riding where the NDP could be the spoiler is Lumsden-Morse.The Lumsden-Morse by-election in August 2023 showed that the Sask Party is vulnerable in rural seats. Sask United candidate Jon Hromek had only five weeks to campaign before the election and took almost 23% of the vote. Hromek is now the Sask United leader, campaigning across the province. A recent Angus Reid poll showed that 41% of Saskatchewan residents know Hromek’s name and this will most likely turn into a stronger showing in Lumsden-Morse. However, the NDP candidate Kaitlyn Stadnyk garnered 22%. The Sask Party’s Blaine McLeod won the seat with 53%. The Buffalo Party candidate Les Guillemin received 1% of the vote but did not actively campaign. In the 2020 election, Guillemin took 6% of the vote. If the Buffalo Party and Sask United both have a strong showing, the NDP can pick up the seat.The NDP will need to turn a few urban seats orange as well.One of those urban ridings is Saskatoon Churchill-Wildwood, where the NDP is running Keith Jorgenson. Jorgenson is very well known in Saskatoon and owns the largest independent bakery in Saskatchewan.In the 2020 election, the Sask Party’s Lisa Lambert won the seat with 49%. The NDP candidate picked up 46%. However, there was no Buffalo Party candidate and Sask United did not exist. If both run candidates, assuming they get just their polling numbers (Buffalo at 2% and Sask United at 4%), that would put the NDP candidate in first place, assuming most of the 6% would come from former Sask Party voters.Whatever happens in the Saskatchewan election, it will be closer than any of the last four elections. Moe’s Sask Party still has a 98% chance of forming the government, but this is the first time in almost two decades that the Sask Party does not have a 100% chance of winning..This is what the Western Standard is up againstThe Trudeau government is funding lies and propaganda by directly subsidizing the mainstream media. They do this to entrench the powerful Eastern, woke and corrupt interests that dominate the political, social and economic institutions in Canada. Federal authorities are constantly trying to censor us and stop us from publishing the stories that they don’t want you to read. Ottawa may weaponize our taxes and police against us, but we’ve got a powerful ally on our side.You. Free men, and free women. We need you to stand with us and become a member of the Western Standard. Here’s what you will get for your membership:Unlimited access to all articles from the Western Standard, Alberta Report, West Coast Standard, and Saskatchewan Standard, with no paywall. Our daily newsletter delivered to your inbox. .Access to exclusive Member-only WS events.Keep the West’s leading independent media voice strong and free.If you can, please support us with a monthly or annual membership. It takes just a moment to set up, and you will be making a big impact on keeping one the last independent media outlets in Canada free from Ottawa’s corrupting influence.
For the first time in almost two decades, the Saskatchewan NDP has a slight chance of forming a government in the upcoming fall provincial election.The poll aggregator 338Canada gives the Sask NDP a 2% chance to reach the 31 seats required to form a majority government.New NDP leader Carla Beck kicked off her election campaign this week by guaranteeing she will not raise taxes if her party forms government. “People are struggling, even those who haven’t struggled in the past. We’ve got to lower costs and that’s exactly what we’ll do,” Beck said. “We want to give folks a guarantee that unlike Scott Moe and the Sask. Party, we won’t raise your taxes — in fact, we’ll lower them.”The NDP’s path to the Premier’s Office is helped by the two conservative parties pulling support away from Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party.The Buffalo Party is polling at 2% and the new upstart conservative Sask United Party is at 4%. Those polling numbers do not look concerning, except that most of their support is in rural areas, which are the Sask Party's strongholds.The NDP needs to turn at least 5-6 rural ridings they do not already hold and keep the rural ridings they already have.A source inside the NDP campaign not authorized to comment for the party told the Western Standard that they are looking at seats where Sask United and the Buffalo Party are likely to pull in 10% or more. The NDP knows they cannot pull 40% or higher in most rural ridings to win. However, two other parties are taking votes away from the Sask Party. They could win some rural seats by getting 30% to 35% of the vote.So, where are some rural ridings where the NDP could pull 30% or more?The Estevan riding is possible. The Buffalo Party leader Phil Zajac ran in the Estevan riding in the 2020 election, taking 24% of the vote. The Sask Party’s Lori Carr won with 62%, but that was a drop of almost 16% from the previous election. Adding in Sask United taking away votes from the Sask Party could open a path for the NDP to take the seat. Sask United is expected to announce their candidate next week.Another riding is Saskatchewan Rivers, the only seat Sask United has in the legislature. Sask United leader Nadine Wilson MLA currently holds the seat and the Sask Party wants that seat back. Wilson won the seat as a Sask Party candidate in 2020 and has held it since 2007. However, the NDP won 26% of the vote in 2020. Wilson is popular in her riding, and there is expected to be a very close race between the Sask Party and Sask United. But the Buffalo Party’s Fred Lackie pulled in 4% of the vote in 2020. The three parties on the right splitting up the vote leaves the door open for the NDP candidate Doug Racine to win the seat. This seat is possibly the best chance for the NDP to take a rural seat they do not already hold.Another riding where the NDP could be the spoiler is Lumsden-Morse.The Lumsden-Morse by-election in August 2023 showed that the Sask Party is vulnerable in rural seats. Sask United candidate Jon Hromek had only five weeks to campaign before the election and took almost 23% of the vote. Hromek is now the Sask United leader, campaigning across the province. A recent Angus Reid poll showed that 41% of Saskatchewan residents know Hromek’s name and this will most likely turn into a stronger showing in Lumsden-Morse. However, the NDP candidate Kaitlyn Stadnyk garnered 22%. The Sask Party’s Blaine McLeod won the seat with 53%. The Buffalo Party candidate Les Guillemin received 1% of the vote but did not actively campaign. In the 2020 election, Guillemin took 6% of the vote. If the Buffalo Party and Sask United both have a strong showing, the NDP can pick up the seat.The NDP will need to turn a few urban seats orange as well.One of those urban ridings is Saskatoon Churchill-Wildwood, where the NDP is running Keith Jorgenson. Jorgenson is very well known in Saskatoon and owns the largest independent bakery in Saskatchewan.In the 2020 election, the Sask Party’s Lisa Lambert won the seat with 49%. The NDP candidate picked up 46%. However, there was no Buffalo Party candidate and Sask United did not exist. If both run candidates, assuming they get just their polling numbers (Buffalo at 2% and Sask United at 4%), that would put the NDP candidate in first place, assuming most of the 6% would come from former Sask Party voters.Whatever happens in the Saskatchewan election, it will be closer than any of the last four elections. Moe’s Sask Party still has a 98% chance of forming the government, but this is the first time in almost two decades that the Sask Party does not have a 100% chance of winning..This is what the Western Standard is up againstThe Trudeau government is funding lies and propaganda by directly subsidizing the mainstream media. They do this to entrench the powerful Eastern, woke and corrupt interests that dominate the political, social and economic institutions in Canada. Federal authorities are constantly trying to censor us and stop us from publishing the stories that they don’t want you to read. Ottawa may weaponize our taxes and police against us, but we’ve got a powerful ally on our side.You. Free men, and free women. We need you to stand with us and become a member of the Western Standard. Here’s what you will get for your membership:Unlimited access to all articles from the Western Standard, Alberta Report, West Coast Standard, and Saskatchewan Standard, with no paywall. Our daily newsletter delivered to your inbox. .Access to exclusive Member-only WS events.Keep the West’s leading independent media voice strong and free.If you can, please support us with a monthly or annual membership. It takes just a moment to set up, and you will be making a big impact on keeping one the last independent media outlets in Canada free from Ottawa’s corrupting influence.
